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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Oct 2026, 19:09 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

ETH/BTC has broken out of its short term downtrend. It seems like the ETH/BTC bottom is in for now. https://t.co/cxp8DngJOL

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,251 at 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,256 at 1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 2256.42 / 2251.18 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time