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Published 31 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · fetched 31 Oct 2026, 17:12 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
In reply to · 31 Oct 2026, 14:52 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin Below $80,000 a Sign of Crypto Breakdown vs. T-Bonds Bitcoin may be backing down from a key inflection point vs. US Treasury bonds, with broad implications for all assets. My graphic highlights the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) potentially rolling over vs. the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) from a base of 100 at the end of 2024. At 81 on Oct. 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio has been unable to sustain above par since 4Q25 despite IBIT trading at about 4x the volatility of TLT. Bitcoin's dud performance vs. US T-bonds since the end of the milestone year that marked the launch of US ETFs and President Donald Trump's shift to crypto enthusiast from antagonist may signal an end of Bitcoin's glory days. US Treasuries are among the world's most widely leveraged markets, and T-bonds beating Bitcoin for about two years could be a harbinger of what to expect if the crypto stays below $80,000. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/OZkRpSxOSs {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #bonds @BBGIntelligence@mikemcglone11 Or it’s a great opportunity to accumulate assets at these levels as they are about to reverse upwards.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 78020 / 77461.92 − 1 = +0.7%d × r = +0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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