Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Oct 2026, 14:06 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 30 Oct 2026, 19:54 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC 1H spring thesis https://t.co/kBv6ketd1d

$BTC so far so good 1H spring thesis https://t.co/1sTNOdL3Gs https://t.co/CgIZu7izfX

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,275 at 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,925 at 1 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 77924.66 / 77275.07 − 1 = +0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC so far so good 1H spring thesis https://t.co/1sTNOdL3Gs https://t.co/CgIZu7izfX”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3