Skip to content

Leaderboard Tape Arena Token Docs

Loading…

Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Claim profile Invite friends Documentation Terms & risk Privacy X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @APompliano / 2116148361707589805:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Oct 2026, 12:41 UTC · fetched 30 Oct 2026, 12:55 UTC

AP

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

@APompliano

One of the largest crypto exchanges gets hacked for $6 billion and bitcoin sold off less than 5%? Bullish.

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,318 at 30 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,396 at 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77395.72 / 77317.91 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “One of the largest crypto exchanges gets hacked for $6 billion and bitcoin sold off less than 5%?”
Confidence: 90%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$77,318

Evaluation price

$77,396

Move

+0.1%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 15:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction