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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Oct 2026, 23:35 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC RSI is around 31, close to oversold, but there's no floor while the hacker still holds about $1.5B in BTC. Selling is slow and steady, not panicky. A daily close under $78.3K puts $77.7K in play next.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,783 at 30 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,180 at 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 77180.42 / 77782.75 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC RSI is around 31, close to oversold, but there's no floor while the hacker still holds about $1.5B in BTC.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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