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Published 29 Oct 2026, 20:47 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC
Ryan Rossi | Horse
@TheFlowHorse
In reply to · 29 Oct 2026, 20:47 UTC · context given to the AI
9/ Midterms are Tuesday. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up. Prediction markets have Congress flipping. House control is about 93% Dem on Polymarket and 92% on Kalshi. Senate is closer, around 68% Dem on Kalshi and 67% on Polymarket. GOP holds the Senate 53-47 right now, so Dems need a net four seats. History is on the bulls' side after the vote. CFRA has the S&P higher 12 months after every midterm from 1946 to 2018, averaging about 16.7%. Imo a Dem House is mostly priced at 93%, so the Senate is the part that can still move things.10/ Crypto held up better than the Nasdaq. BTC $80.3K, -0.9%. ETH $2,315, -1.6%. SOL $99, -2.7%. NDX was -1.4%, so BTC lost less. IBIT -0.9%, COIN -1.1% into its print tonight. I think $80K holding is what matters here. Lose it and BTC probably goes back to test the $79.5K area from overnight.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 76764.14 / 78738.4 − 1 = -2.5%d × r = +2.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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