Prediction evidence

Quoting · 29 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC · context given to the AI

[full thesis] Breaking down my $5T bull case for Eli Lilly "I am pretty obsessed with Eli Lilly. It's trading around 1 point something trillion nowadays. I think in the coming years it's probably a five trillion dollar company at least. A 5x over many years is maybe not the most exciting thing in crypto, but I kind of expect it to do so as close to a straight line as you could possibly see. If you're a real trader, you can get infinite size on this thing and whatever amount of leverage you can stomach." STEP 1: RETA MAKES MORE MONEY THAN GOD "However much sales of GLP-1s are priced into Lilly, I think it's just not even close. Ozempic has been in a persistent shortage for multiple years, but it hasn't taken the world by absolute storm. What is coming down the pipe is Reta, which absolutely is going to take the world by storm." "Gen one and gen two were essentially tamping down the appetite, less calories in. Reta tamps up the burn, more calories out. The change from the second gen drugs to the third gen drugs is bigger than the change from the first generation to the second. You kind of have to see it to believe it, but it's staggering. For a simple injection, it is getting greater results than surgery. It works disgustingly well." "People severely underestimate the social dynamics here. When the celebrities on the TV screen get skinnier, it's not that motivating. But when your friends get skinnier, it applies more peer pressure than some abstract figure on the TV screen. If you take Reta and get incredibly fit and sexy, you are literally, definitionally, a walking billboard for the product. It is going to go hyper mega ultra viral." "All the inflammation and joint pain goes away. All of the sleep apnea goes away. When you lose the fat, your hormones return and people are literally making more babies. It's solving the fertility crisis, which Elon is crashing out about. You're going to go to your doctor for knee pain and walk out of there with a Reta prescription. You will go out of business as a doctor if you aren't prescribing this thing like candy." "Some people model 20 million, 50 million. I think you could probably see a billion people on this drug, and I'm absolutely not kidding about that. I can project a world where Lilly is making more money than Apple, Nvidia and Micron combined." "Nations will be putting people on it so they make babies. Insurance costs are one of the most politically poignant issues in America. If everybody lost weight and got healthy, premiums would just go down. Republicans want to be skinny sexy. Democrats want to be skinny sexy. Let's pass the free Reta for everybody bill." "And Wall Street can't price this. What Wall Street analyst is going to go to his boss and say, 'Have you considered how sexy people want to be?' It'll be the most profitable thing to have ever been created. That's step one, and that might get you to five trillion on its own." STEP 2: LILLY BECOMES AN AI PHARMA WITH A MOAT "Dave Ricks has remained publicly committed to about 20% of revenue going into R&D. Within a year or two they're projected to be spending more on health research than the NIH, which means Eli Lilly will be spending more on medical research than nation states." "Eli Lilly to my understanding already has the largest compute cluster, built with Nvidia, and it's growing the fastest. The bitter lesson teaches us that he who has the most compute wins. They're going to have more money than God and they can plow it into as many GPUs as they want." "Eli Lilly's been putting people through clinical trials forever, cross-referencing every drug you take against everything else. Lilly has a compute advantage. Lilly has a data advantage. This is not data that OpenAI or Anthropic or any of the labs have." "Even if startups could discover all the drugs in the world, you still have to do an FDA trial, which, good luck. Lilly runs some of the most efficient FDA trial processes in pharma, and that's not a process AI can speed up, because you have to give the person the drug and wait. The FDA doesn't want a hundred new pharma startups. They like Lilly, they like Johnson & Johnson." "When Netflix invents video streaming, you get Amazon Prime and Apple TV and Hulu. But drugs can be patented. If my AI discovers 20,000 drugs, I can patent them in a way a software company can't. So they have a regulatory moat, a clinical moat, and a patent moat." STEP 3: THE RIGHT TAIL "Lilly is also curing cholesterol. You inject it and you just have low cholesterol now. If Eli Lilly cures fatness and high cholesterol, they're curing the two primary causes of death in the world. 90 year olds take exponentially more medicine than 70 year olds, who take exponentially more than 50 year olds. If Lilly creates an entirely new massive cohort of 90 year olds, they've grown the most profitable segment of their customer base."