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RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @AshCrypto / 2115778827301621943:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Oct 2026, 12:12 UTC · fetched 29 Oct 2026, 12:43 UTC

As

Ash Crypto

@AshCrypto

US M2 LIQUIDITY HITS A NEW ATH BITCOIN WILL FOLLOW SOON 🚀 https://t.co/tNuDeHG0Ns

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,948 at 29 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,318 at 30 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77317.91 / 79947.6 − 1 = -3.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Same 24h episode

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“FOMC uncertainty is over. Israel elections have happened. PCE and GDP data are out. And BTC is still holding above $80K. Once the US midterm election ends, I think Bitcoin could blast 🚀”Repeat29 Oct 2026, 17:01 UTC
“The FTX exchange crash marked the bottom for Bitcoin in the 2022 bear market. The Binance hack will mark the bottom for BTC in the 2026 bear market. Position accordingly. https://t.co/GEEFU1UwYy”Repeat30 Oct 2026, 09:36 UTC

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “BITCOIN WILL FOLLOW SOON 🚀 https://t.co/tNuDeHG0Ns”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$79,948

Evaluation price

$77,318

Move

-3.3%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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