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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

CRG

@MacroCRG

$BTC gun to head i'd say one more probe down to sweep the build up of lows before a bounce to $83k+ https://t.co/WWzwoAhEfW

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,186 at 29 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,696 at 30 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 77695.92 / 80185.6 − 1 = -3.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC gun to head i'd say one more probe down to sweep the build up of lows before a bounce to $83k+ https://t.co/WWzwoAhEfW”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3