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Published 28 Oct 2026, 12:46 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
Killa
@KillaXBT
Quoting · 26 Oct 2026, 14:28 UTC · context given to the AI
Billions liquidated, FOMC is priced in, and we’re heading into the monthly close pivot + major cycle pivot + Midterms. Every directional move around FOMC has been around 10–15%. If we get the inverse narrative move we’ve seen in the past, like the examples on my chart, a 10% move would take us to 86K, while 15% would put us above 90K. On the other hand, the bearish side would mean 72K at -10% and 67K at -15%. I think a 15% drop is way too extreme and pretty unlikely. So pick your poison. I always trade against the narrative building into these dates, and right now it’s clearly more bearish. That’s why I’m leaning bullish on $BTC$BTC is on the verge of a major move. With FOMC today, we know the drill. So far, we’re building a clear bearish narrative into my pivot, a level that has proven its track record over the past 2 years. The minimum expected move over the next 7–10 days is 10%+. That means significant volatility will occur over the next week or two. Since we’re derisking into the date, I’m leaning toward a bullish reaction afterwards, potentially taking BTC into the 90Ks. If things go the other way, we could see another 10% drop from current prices. That’s not my main expectation, with a bearish narrative already building into this date, a further 10% decline feels a little extreme. For now, I’m bullish & remain bullish. We’ve got an eventful few weeks ahead, midterms, the monthly close, and billions in positions already wiped out on one side. I wonder which direction is more exposed heading into the midterms, especially when so many are expecting a bearish reaction. We’ll find out soon.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 78189.7 / 80608.49 − 1 = -3.0%d × r = -3.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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