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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 Oct 2026, 10:55 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC leverage wipeout has started. Most of them are shorts, which means the pump could continue. https://t.co/QUQLXdYuEi

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,372 at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,186 at 29 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 80185.6 / 81372.38 − 1 = -1.5%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time