Prediction evidence

Em

Emperor👑

@EmperorBTC

Bitcoin Market Report. You need to know this. Bitcoin Top-Down Analysis: 1. The Weekly Chart Everything should be built from the top down. First decide the weekly trend and then use the lower timeframe to form a bias. After the range low touch at $60k, the bullish fuelled by mass short liquidations,has started to form some bullish structure on the weekly. 80K has become an imperative level to hold (you'll see in the daily chart how it's currently being exhausted). Otherwise, a sweep of the low at $75k becomes a very probable move, as standard Bitcoin PA has shown us time and again that a major HTF sweep tends to fuel the next major run. (Note: every local top that formed in the bear market came from a major sweep of highs.) With that being said, we're currently sitting at the weekly supply zone (the last weekly down close before the expansive move higher). This could be the catalyst for the next leg up, putting in the HTF higher low most market participants long for... pardon the pun. 2. The Daily Chart With the weekly context in mind, we can now go through the daily chart with a finer comb. As I keep repeating in the market update videos, auction market theory reigns supreme in BTC price action, with every major expansive move followed by a long consolidation / range. After we flipped the HTF range high of $75k, which coincided with a sweep of the LTF low, we pushed bullishly up through $80k (a major psychological resistance / round number) towards the yearly open (another major psychological resistance) and started forming our next consolidation / LTF range. Since then we've broken down through that LTF range. Every bullish attempt to push back up has been met with sharp sell-offs at logical resistance overhead, like the mid-range point of the LTF range (all covered in my market update videos). Bitcoin hasn't been helped at all by news-driven events and global uncertainty, which naturally leads to selling pressure (like the ETF outflows we saw over the last couple of weeks) as people dump their risk assets in pursuit of more certain market conditions. On the daily we're now back at our previous LTF range highs, with multiple stabs below $80k. $80.6k is a key level in its own right. It was a prior bear market range low, and it was the primary resistance when we were trying to get through $80k in the first place. Rather concerningly, we're currently back under that level and have seen some bearish underside retests of it on the lower timeframes. That being said, for me these have always been levels of discount and uncertainty worth putting a small portion of risk on. Most people wait for price to be exploding to the upside before jumping in head first. The best expected value always comes at these discounted, scary levels that everyone begs for, yet bails on once the market actually presents them. In the words of a once infamous person in this space: "Big week ahead" 3. This Week's Macro News (some big ones here) Bitcoin has been trading like a tech stock all month, so most of what moves it this week won't come from crypto at all. - Wednesday: The Fed. No hike is expected, with most expecting them to hold until after the midterms. Microsoft and Alphabet also report, and the capex numbers are what matter. If the AI spending story starts to crack, BTC follows the Nasdaq down. - Thursday: PCE and Q3 GDP. A hot PCE print puts a December hike firmly back on the table. Amazon and Coinbase also report, and Coinbase gives a decent read on whether retail is actually trading. - Oil: Brent hit $116 after the Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure, its highest since April. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials meet Iran in Tehran this week. How that goes decides whether the inflation trade comes back. - Midterms: next week, and another pivot point for the Fed. I'm marking my levels, cutting size and letting the data come to me. In weeks like this, most of the money gets lost chasing the first move.