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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

My $BTC plan for this week is simple. I know everyone wants the bounce. I don't trust it below $81,300. No daily close above it, I short. Above $81.3K, I'm wrong. Target: $77.5K. Right into my buy zone. Short the drop. Buy the bottom. https://t.co/U2fdEWAzNK

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,203 at 26 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $77,674 at 2 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77674.24 / 80202.75 − 1 = -3.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “My $BTC plan for this week is simple.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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