Prediction evidence

In reply to · 25 Oct 2026, 16:42 UTC · context given to the AI

So that was something I had to look at and what I found historically is that the risk ratios turning upward have not been dependent on specific policy through many decades In 2016-2017 there was no QE and Rates were rising In 1999-2000 bubble there was no QE, Rates rising, rates elevated, and inflation rising The common factor has been the ratios turning upward which they did in (1991, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2020 and now here in 2026) All of the examples above have different combos of QE/QT, inflation/disinflation, rates rising/dropping, rates elevated/non elevated so they have not been the common factor My conclusion is that the risk ratios themselves are the common factor and can go up or down regardless of outside FED policy or economic data with many examples Either way in terms of crypto it's still learning experience due to lack of history so will be interesting to see how it goes over next few years as it will be now put to the test again going forward and has been here in 2026 and IMO is showing based on median ALT vs BTC performance it has been much different than 2022-2025 and much more similar to 2016 & 2020 which is the first sign for me the macro ratios are showing they are the most important factor So I think you giving focus on and expanding on 2019-2020 which you were one of the earliest to do so, given the risk-ratios are strongly agreeing is interesting analysis and the more likely conclusion of the current period 👍