Prediction evidence

Quoting · 23 Sept 2026, 18:36 UTC · context given to the AI

Last bear market, $BTC dropped 78%. This bear market dropped 54%. Significantly less aggressive. Last cycle, once the bull market began, the largest retracements before Bitcoin reached its ATH were 20-22%. BTC never pulled back more than 22% on its entire run to ATH. If we apply the same proportional logic to this cycle, a less severe bear market should also lead to less severe bull market pullbacks. That puts the larger retracements this cycle in roughly the 10-15% region. Mathematically, that means buying retracements with 4x leverage should be relatively safe throughout the move toward 126K, provided you are not blindly longing the top of every candle (even if you did, you still wouldn't get liquidated on 4x). If you are entering on actual pullbacks rather than chasing, you can be more aggressive with leverage where the setup allows it. My point is simple... this cycle’s retracements are likely to be shallower than past cycles. Be prepared for that.