Prediction evidence

Ki

Killa

@KillaXBT

Bottoms never "look good." Even in a trend continuation environment, the market can look like it’s on the brink of falling off a cliff before putting in a significant low and moving higher. It convinces 99% of people. Take 62K, for example. $BTC respected the same low 9 times. We quite literally had billions in liquidations below us. So why didn’t the market sweep those lows? Why didn’t we reverse just 1–2% lower and take out the stops? The answer is simple... big players were protecting their positions with spot bids. Sellers ran out of ammunition, price rebalanced, and BTC moved higher. We’re seeing sellers dominate again now. But there will come a time when they run out of coins to sell, and price misprices to the upside. So just because we’re holding uncomfortable lows, or haven’t seen the liquidity sweep everyone expects, doesn’t mean we have to get one. Following that logic, you would’ve missed the macro bottom while waiting for a sweep that never came. So, what’s my thesis now? It seems to me that everyone is waiting for one particular price to get swept, just as they were at the 60K lows. Of course, the comparison isn’t exact, we’re significantly higher now. But the point I’m making is I’d rather bid the established range lows and look for deviations to capitalize on than fixate on one specific outcome or sweep. I always build slightly earlier, and as you can see, I’ve done quite well by doing so. You should try it.