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Published 24 Oct 2026, 01:03 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Benjamin Cowen
@benjamincowen
A plausible path to consider (in order). Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k -Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) -Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) -Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes in hot (Oct 29) -Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120) -Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%) -Stocks drop -Bitcoin drops in Q4 of midterm year (like always) -Long end drops before EOY -Stocks and Bitcoin bottomView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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