Loading…

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

In 2020, $ETH broke out of a structure like this and went from $250 to $4,800. This one has been building for 4 years. $10,000 isn’t the dream scenario. It’s the conservative one. https://t.co/cGFTYDYb2I

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,404 at 23 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,315 at 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 2315.16 / 2404.1 − 1 = -3.7%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “In 2020, $ETH broke out of a structure like this and went from $250 to $4,800.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction