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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Oct 2026, 09:42 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Jelle

@CryptoJelleNL

$BTC rarely ends October in the red. Another week to push prices just a little bit higher, to keep that streak alive. https://t.co/VAFZ19v3Or

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,553 at 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $77,552 at 30 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 77552.34 / 81553.08 − 1 = -4.9%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -4.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time