Prediction evidence

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Ki Young Ju

@ki_young_ju

The Ledger incident occurred on October 9, while realized cap began trending higher around August 19, alongside the price rebound. The timing doesn't align, and the losses were likely too small to materially affect realized cap. Stablecoin issuance doesn't necessarily mean BTC buying. Inflows to futures exchanges can even coincide with price declines, as exchanges need liquidity to settle profitable positions. Stablecoin liquidity matters over the long term, but what matters most now is who's buying and who's selling. Realized cap confirms fresh capital inflows. Old whales have stopped selling, miners are ramping up production, and TradFi sentiment remains positive. I see little reason to expect another bear market under these conditions.