Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:47 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC

Dan Held

@danheld

In reply to · 21 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin at $180,000 by the end of 2029. Sounds conservative, but we can live with it. https://t.co/ppOjf76yat

@BitcoinArchive That’s hella bearish 😅

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Awaiting manual review

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@BitcoinArchive That’s hella bearish 😅”
Confidence: 53%
Review state: needs review · Low confidence (53%); Unsupported horizon: "unspecified timeframe"
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3