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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Every bear on X wanted $BTC at $75K. They’re about to miss the move again. The level that rejected Bitcoin in May just saved it in October. Old resistance. New support. Bullish cross on top. $90K is in play. https://t.co/urK2VXAYb0

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,474 at 21 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,583 at 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 81583.01 / 84474.36 − 1 = -3.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Every bear on X wanted $BTC at $75K.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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