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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 20 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

The greatest trader ever wrote the map. $BTC is following it. Bears think we’re at point 13. We’re at point 7. Livermore wrote “test before selling short” at point 10. Not at 7. Most will short the bottom anyway. https://t.co/5PSNMRNOty

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,496 at 20 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,399 at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 83398.63 / 81495.59 − 1 = +2.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +2.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC is following it.”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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