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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

You sold $ETH at $1,500 in July. That was the head. Now it’s $2,400 and you’re scared again. That’s the last shoulder. Don’t sell this one too. https://t.co/68PnSQc436

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,400 at 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,449 at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 2449.08 / 2399.76 − 1 = +2.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +2.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “You sold $ETH at $1,500 in July.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

Outcome record

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