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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Ed_NL

@Crypto_Ed_NL

In reply to · 19 Oct 2026, 13:49 UTC · context given to the AI

@Crypto_Ed_NL Thanks for sharing Is it possible that this correction on BTC is leg 4 and leg 5 will go for 94+ then correction to 70k

@MohsenGliderFX That's what I assumed for a while also. If we go sub 77k, it's more likely we already completed 5th leg.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,831 at 19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,514 at 20 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 82514.42 / 81830.89 − 1 = +0.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@MohsenGliderFX That's what I assumed for a while also. If we go sub 77k, it's more likely we already completed 5th leg.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3