Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,421 at 19 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,393 at 20 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
3. r = 2393.12 / 2421.21 − 1 = -1.16%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.16% against a neutral band of ±1.25% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology