Prediction evidence

Quoting · 20 Sept 2026, 13:08 UTC · context given to the AI

The “Everything Is Priced In” chart. It documents the biggest catalysts and news events throughout each cycle, and more importantly, what tends to happen shortly after them. During every bear market, $BTC gets hit with endless bad news that fuels downside. But once the HTF trend starts shifting, that same negative news becomes what I call FUD through the bull cycle. People become so conditioned to shorting bad news because throughout the bear cycle, negative headlines usually led to lower prices. But when BTC enters a bull cycle and begins doing the inverse, (absorbing the bad news and moving higher), they get caught completely off guard. The headlines still create panic. People still expect lower. But instead of continuing the downtrend, BTC begins absorbing the fear and trending higher regardless. There is usually one major catalyst that confirms the continuation. Last cycle, it was the ETF approval. This cycle, I believe it will be the Clarity Act. We have already seen the early signs of it. The rate hike, Clarity Act speculation and then the failure of the Act were all treated as reasons for BTC to sell off further. Instead, BTC swept the lows and showed strength. That is the difference between a bear market and a bull market. In a bear market, bad news pushes price lower. In a bull market, bad news is used to make people capitulate before price moves higher. Now we have had the rate hike, the Clarity Act failure, and even World War 3 narratives trending. Yet BTC is starting to react positively to the fear rather than negatively. To me, that resilience is one of the clearest signs that the trend has changed. I see no reason these catalysts should play out any differently to previous bull cycle FUD events. Likes/RTs are appreciated, spent a while creating this.