Prediction evidence

In reply to · 17 Oct 2026, 16:18 UTC · context given to the AI

original tweet was partially tongue in cheek but engagement always goes crazy on one liners because we love to not have to use our brain too hard. anything more than a few sentences is too much to digest (engagement on this tweet will prove this). There is value in inverting charts to eliminate bias if you struggle with swinging against a trend continuously thinking you caught the "low" and end up puking on every low, at the very least you'll stay out of the way of pissing against the wind (as XO would say). The beauty of this is that both of these scenarios can be true at the same time in fact I've laid out my thoughts including both on different timeframes. current thoughts: > on the turn, risk on in crypto got over extended which was evident in the OI by dom elevated on alts vs. btc after 2-3 sd moves. this typically happens at local tops when people do a hard flip and start adding a ton of leverage after being indecisive or impartial on a rally (I spoke about this multiple times leading into this). > this typically results in an inventory cleanse, markets don't move in straight lines in fact most of the time is spent ranging (recall the 7-8 months of BTC ranging which lead to the yen carry trade puke that set the low for the next leg up back in 2024). > currently BTC has continued to get absorbed at ~80 multiple times, continuing to chop. 80-85 is the range for now, believe there's another unwind waiting under 80k. if back above 85, reassess and flip. > on alts, there's a ton of dispersion. a handful will continue to outperform and all of the garbage will get dragged up when things are up only. That being said a good precursor and at the risk of oversimplifying the 4 hour trend is a decent gauge currently (most alts are continuing to reject off of this). So you can wait for this behavior to settle down or change if you want to add risk to the upside. > for most for the time being, it's probably best to sit on your hands. cc: @stoicsavage @docXBT