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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Oct 2026, 17:40 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC buy side is currently weak in the short term. On the upside, there aren't major sell orders until $83,700-$84,000. But to the downside, there aren't major buy orders until $80,300. This means if Bitcoin loses the $82,000 level here, the downtrend could accelerate. https://t.co/VpCOu9SGKP

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $82,339 at 15 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,089 at 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 81089.2 / 82338.94 − 1 = -1.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC buy side is currently weak in the short term.”
Confidence: 94%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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Prediction evidence

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