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Published 13 Oct 2026, 12:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC
Ki Young Ju
@ki_young_ju
In reply to · 13 Oct 2026, 11:56 UTC · context given to the AI
@ki_young_ju What would invalidate your bull view?When I say the bear cycle is over, I mean the odds of breaking the previous low (~$58K) are significantly low. It's not a TA call that price only goes up from here. On-chain PnL metrics point to seller exhaustion. OG whales have mostly stopped selling, and fresh capital keeps coming in, as reflected in the rising realized cap. Macro looks weak, but with BTC sitting near the ETF cost basis, I doubt ETF outflows alone can break that low. What would change my mind: realized cap inflows stalling and OG whales selling again. One caveat. This framework worked when cycles were driven by whales and retail. With TradFi liquidity channels now in play, OG whales might not have the final say anymore.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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