Published 11 Oct 2026, 17:11 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC
Ted
@TedPillows
Right now, it really comes down to inflation and energy prices. If the reports are correct that President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an “energy ceasefire” that could be a meaningful positive for markets. Any reduction in pressure on energy prices could help the inflation picture and, in turn, improve sentiment around risk assets. We used the recent weakness to add more BTC at $82,500 and $80,500, and ETH at $2,535. That leaves us nicely allocated, so there’s no need to chase the market from here. If you want to see the spreadsheet with my complete portfolio subscribe on X. For now, price action looks constructive and the market seems to want higher. I’m also seeing quite a bit of accumulation from larger wallets on-chain, which is another interesting piece of the puzzle. Still watching the macro and the data closely, but the setup is looking increasingly positive. Fingers crossed. 🤞View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 82395.96 / 83737 − 1 = -1.6%d × r = -1.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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