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Published 9 Oct 2026, 15:47 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC
Route 2 FI
@Route2FI
In reply to · 9 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC · context given to the AI
My base case is there's probably ~5-25 assets you can buy right now that will beat Bitcoin on a multi-cycle time horizon with the exception of something like a sovereign debt collapse or fiat implosion that teleports Bitcoin to $1mil/btc (which is a nonzero chance, so don't ever own 0 Bitcoin) As far as BTC.D or BTC/Others or different Bitcoin ratios, they're all kinda useless imo. I can see Ethereum, XRP, & Solana down ~50-90% in this same multi cycle timeframe. That will erase so much value in Alts that Bitcoin will look incredibly strong in aggregate despite what other Alts do just to affirm the math: Hyperliquid can go to ~$1,000 and if Ethereum goes down ~66% (which is my base case) then BTC.D would still be roughly flat holding the price of all else constant. In this scenario Derive (another bag I love) could do a 20x to $10 and it still wouldn't really affect any of the Bitcoin ratios bc it's coming from such a small base@tulipking Let’s say $HYPE goes to $1,000. What price do you think $ETH will have? Down 66% from what price? 🙌View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 110.37 / 109.6 − 1 = +0.7%d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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