Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,434 at 8 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,487 at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 2486.52 / 2433.59 − 1 = +2.2%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology