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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 1 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC · context given to the AI

I'm bullish on $BTC. But I'm not naive. In 2023, Bitcoin flashed this exact RSI divergence. Then dropped −22% before the real rally. This time, I don't think we drop that deep. $79K is my worst case. Those waiting for a deeper pullback will be left behind. https://t.co/AhnT1eZFgY

I posted this a week ago. $BTC is pulling back exactly like I said it would. My worst case hasn't changed: $79K. Then we send. https://t.co/X7a3jJBsWB https://t.co/pJgv01WbOk

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $82,257 at 8 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,954 at 9 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 82954.06 / 82256.84 − 1 = +0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC is pulling back exactly like I said it would.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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