Prediction evidence

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Ted

@TedPillows

Let me share my thoughts on the market. $BTC has been ranging between roughly $82,500 and $87,500 for quite some time now. That’s basically a $5K box, and we've spent a lot of time moving back and forth inside it. What stood out to me was the repeated rejection around $86K–$87K. We tried several times to push higher and eventually make that move towards $90K, but every attempt failed. When you keep getting rejected from the same area, at some point you have to question how much buying power is actually left there. That’s why I told my X subscribers that, in my opinion, the higher-probability move was a rotation back towards the lower end of the range at $82,500. And that’s exactly what happened this morning. $82,500 was also TP1 of our accumulation strategy, so obviously it's always nice to see a level and target play out as expected. But I think there’s something more important happening here. My view is that we're still in a big liquidity-hunting phase. Price moves towards the highs, takes liquidity and liquidates shorts, then reverses and moves towards the lows, where longs get liquidated. Then it happens again. That’s one of the main reasons I think so many people are getting chopped up in this range. And honestly, this is exactly where I don't want to overtrade. A $5K range can look like there are endless opportunities, but if you keep chasing every move, using too much leverage or FOMOing into candles, the market can take your money on both sides before it eventually chooses a direction. For me, the plan is pretty simple now. I want to see how Bitcoin reacts around the range. If we break below $82,500 and get confirmation, I think the downside can accelerate. The range is roughly $5K wide, so a basic measured move would put us around $77,500. My broader target is still somewhere in the mid-$70Ks, which is also the view I shared publicly about a month ago. A lot of people didn't believe me back then. And that's completely fine. I'm not here to convince everyone that my scenario has to happen. It's simply how I currently see the market. It could be wrong. What matters to me is having a plan for both scenarios. For now, I don't want to FOMO into big candles and I don't want to force trades in the middle of the range. The month is still long. I'll keep some % as dry powder and would rather have capital available if we get lower prices than deploy everything just because the market starts moving. Patience is important in these conditions. Let the market come to you. Don't chase it.