Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,615 at 6 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,110 at 7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC.
3. r = 83109.65 / 85614.66 − 1 = -2.93%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.93% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology