Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $EWZ price at or after publication, $42.24 at 6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $42.18 at 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC.
3. r = 42.18262287421548 / 42.237357182650015 − 1 = -0.1%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology