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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

Daan Crypto Trades

@DaanCrypto

$BTC Quite a few late longs trapped above $86K today. No open interest flush yet so that $85K level will be pretty key in the short term. Below there this starts accelerating. Especially with the near equal lows from before. https://t.co/EqKKS06VVk

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,576 at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $85,608 at 6 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 85607.57 / 85576.09 − 1 = +0.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC Quite a few late longs trapped above $86K today.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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