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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Oct 2026, 09:02 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC is hovering around the $86,000 level. Until Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, every upside rally will be capped. https://t.co/Uh2B84nHCs

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,971 at 6 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,784 at 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 83784.28 / 85970.67 − 1 = -2.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time