Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,658 at 5 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $85,493 at 6 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC.
3. r = 85492.83 / 85658.32 − 1 = -0.2%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology