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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

Weekend tech futures are up a bit $BTC setting up right now we could see a little pop on futures at 6pm I'm long $BTC https://t.co/nbC6fMZ1vX

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,303 at 4 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $85,853 at 4 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 85853.04 / 85302.9 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time