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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Oct 2026, 10:27 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC

swarmik

@swarmister

$ETH 4H, short setup. The asset is showing local signs of weakness and the formation of bearish order flow. A retest of the POI could provide an opportunity to identify a reversal setup and enter a short position. https://t.co/CDoS09KOAw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,683 at 3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $2,683 at 3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 2682.61 / 2683.07 − 1 = -0.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$ETH 4H, short setup.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

Outcome record

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