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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @CryptoGodJohn / 2106043392987926761:memecoin:$MANIFEST

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Oct 2026, 15:27 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Cr

John

@CryptoGodJohn

$MANIFEST road map Last chance to buy at these levels before take off https://t.co/dXdXLYvmZ4

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $MANIFEST price at or after publication, $0.01322 at 2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.01203 at 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 0.01202869620818725 / 0.013221986775806577 − 1 = -9.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -9.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $MANIFEST ($MANIFEST)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$MANIFEST road map”
Confidence: 94%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$0.01322

Evaluation price

$0.01203

Move

-9.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

geckoterminal

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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