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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 2 Oct 2026, 14:47 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC

fejau

@fejau_inc

In reply to · 2 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC · context given to the AI

@fejau_inc @AidanGarrib When more views on macro impacting crypto ? That’s why I started listening and it was really damn high signal 🔥

@Wyckoff3_0 @AidanGarrib I’ve been bull posting since low 60k bitcoin lol Views are unchanged Bullish and just holding my bags

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,683 at 2 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,843 at 3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 84842.99 / 85682.77 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@Wyckoff3_0 @AidanGarrib I’ve been bull posting since low 60k bitcoin lol”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3