Prediction evidence

In reply to · 2 Oct 2026, 11:58 UTC · context given to the AI

Single biggest conviction on a very long time horizon is that Bitcoin reprices to be much closer to Gold in respect to market cap. For anyone relatively young (maybe less than 45) that is the easiest long term high reward low risk investment decision that I can see. The amount of BTC you own should be increasing every few years as you compound successful risk taking, alongside income into the asset, or at the least you should hold a core allocation and really leave it. One of the best things about fud is that if it didn't exist there would be no upside. Bitcoin continues to have several sources of fud that hang over it, and as it continually moves past those sources of fud you find new marginal buyers. CT discourse is completely inconsequential for Bitcoin now. This is a global institutional allocation game, which will play out over decades. Another way to put it is institutional adoption super cycle. If you study gold's first institutional adoption cycle (1971-1980) then we have a very interesting template we could be following. It became legal for US citizens in 1971 and futures launched 3 years later. 24x (nominal terms) in 8.4 years, with a 47% bear in the middle (sounds familiar). Gold's market cap in today's dollars was ~$1T at the start, ~$12T at the top. Bitcoin today is 1.7T. ETF cumulative flow is only 8% below their peak right now, despite price being ~30% off its peak. Some of the inflow would have been basis trade previously too, which means the directional base didn't sell much. Bitcoin's ETF base has been much stickier than price. Very bullish. Funnily enough I haven't seen people mention BTC super cycle on the timeline this time around. Maybe some signal there. Diminishing returns thesis is consensus. This cycle the awareness of debasement of fiat and theft via inflation might be at its strongest since Bitcoin’s inception due to genuine fears of a Sovereign debt crisis, whilst access to buying the asset is the easiest it ever has been. Bitcoin is scarce digital capital, and it will continually reprice against fiat for as long as fiat exists.