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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @CryptoFaibik / 2105289717743063518:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Sept 2026, 13:32 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Cr

Captain Faibik 🐺

@CryptoFaibik

$BTC #Bitcoin Send it Higher..🪂 https://t.co/baFziWolN0

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,605 at 30 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,902 at 1 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 83901.84 / 84605.29 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC #Bitcoin Send it Higher..🪂 https://t.co/baFziWolN0”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$84,605

Evaluation price

$83,902

Move

-0.8%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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