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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

Quoting · 28 Jul 2026, 18:32 UTC · context given to the AI

$USAR (per request) Sure am glad I stayed away from this wonky price action. Lost support and dropping like a knife.. risky to knife catch this after it tried breaking out and failed. https://t.co/wfbXYYWSA3 https://t.co/IHkKLCcDHc

$USAR (Per request) Still just showing weakness.. not risking a knife catch on this. https://t.co/M32XKjLgS7 https://t.co/xiWDjTN6DK

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $USAR price at or after publication, $0.00001145 at 29 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.0000121 at 30 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 0.000012104211496810663 / 0.000011448845665246584 − 1 = +5.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -5.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $USAR ($USAR)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$USAR (Per request)”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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