Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 Sept 2026, 21:17 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

Samson Mow

@Excellion

In reply to · 27 Sept 2026, 00:01 UTC · context given to the AI

One year in Zcash vs one year in Bitcoin. I think I’m going to be sick 😭 https://t.co/JCCLXVBTWd

@TheBTCTherapist Just the usual crypto pump and dump. Look at $DOGE and you’ll know where it ends.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,676 at 27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,181 at 28 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 83181.04 / 84675.79 − 1 = -1.77%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.77% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@TheBTCTherapist Just the usual crypto pump and dump. Look at $DOGE and you’ll know where it ends.”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3