Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,013 at 26 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,942 at 27 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
3. r = 84942.04 / 84012.96 − 1 = +1.1%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology