Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $CATE price at or after publication, $0.1064 at 25 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.09911 at 26 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.0991066249269165 / 0.10637428142180151 − 1 = -6.83%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -6.83% against a neutral band of ±5.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology